Daily Kos:
Nevada:
...
1.) What's interesting about this whole affair is that neither Clinton nor Barack are delivering knockout blows. Hillary will likely emerge with a couple more delegates than Barack, but nothing to essentially knock him out of the race. He's got plenty of cash to go on. She certainly does. This race can drag out for a long time.
Two brokered convetions in the same year? Wouldn't that be something!
2.) Edwards did poorly in a state that was once supposed to be a stronghold because of its strong labor presence. His numbers were better than 4% -- the caucus rules forced his supporters to pick one of the other candidates because of a lack of viability. But still, this isn't going to do much for his stalling effort. And with polling in the teens in his home state of South Carolina, this may be the last week of his campaign.
3.) Who is running with the most progressive rhetoric? Edwards, first. Then Clinton. And then Obama, who is still trying to be a palatable general election candidate rather than close the deal in the primary. So riddle me this -- in a Democratic primary, where will many Edwards supporters go? Don't assume it'll be Obama if they're looking for the strongest Democratic voice in the race.
Obama's path to the nomination at this point runs through Democratic voters. And ultimately, while my absentee ballot will be mailed out Monday with his name checked off, I'm pessimistic that he can win. He has shown no proclivity for speaking in unambiguous progressive tones, and it could cost him the election.
4.) Remember those who mocked Jerome Armstrong's predictions that Obama wouldn't win the nomination? Remember how I said, "it's a solid theory" and people laughed at my stupidity for taking it seriously? Well, his theories don't look so stupid anymore, do they? Yet some of you acted like insane freaks. Pretty darn shameful.
There is one caveat -- Jerome argued that Obama would lose the nomination even if he won New Hampshire, which he expected Obama to do. I still maintain that would've been tough as shit, since Hillary was starting to experience money problems. Losing both Iowa and NH would've dried up her cash. But who knows? Jerome and I will never be able to settle that "bet".
But I never dismissed his theories that Obama's fundamental weakness -- his refusal to run as a Democrat in a Democratic primary -- would ultimately prove his undoing. Of course it's not too late, and much can and will happen. Jerome may yet be wrong. But his core argument was never wrong, and subsequent contests have proven that.
To Clinton backers:
Dear Clinton partisans celebrating Hillary's nomination today,
Didn't you learn a lesson from New Hampshire?
Hugs and kisses,
kos
To Obama backers:
Dear Obama partisans,
If Edwards were to drop out of the race, there's no reason to assume that all his supporters would become Obama supporters. Not everyone that supports a non-Hillary candidate is "anti-Hillary".
And insulting them for remaining Edwards supporters won't win any converts.
Hugs and kisses,
kos
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