Tuesday, March 04, 2008

McCain gets another thing wrong.

Recently, McCain felt the need to make a statement on autism and vaccines. That they are connected. I have given plenty of links over the year to stories looking at the science showing it is not. Not that I expect McCain to check with me, but he seems to be clueless on big issues of medical science.

A lot of people are blathering on and blaming the vaccines, with no actual support from science or research results.

Crooks and Liars:
I can appreciate that this is an emotional issue for some people, but if we limit ourselves to evidence and science, it looks like we have yet another issue in which John McCain doesn’t know what he’s talking about.

At a town hall meeting Friday in Texas, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., declared that “there’s strong evidence” that thimerosal, a mercury-based preservative that was once in many childhood vaccines, is responsible for the increased diagnoses of autism in the U.S. — a position in stark contrast with the view of the medical establishment. […]

McCain said, per ABC News’ Bret Hovell, that “It’s indisputable that (autism) is on the rise amongst children, the question is what’s causing it. And we go back and forth and there’s strong evidence that indicates that it’s got to do with a preservative in vaccines.”
As is too often the case with the senator, his comments were ill-informed and misleading. ABC News’ Jake Tapper ran a helpful report that cut through the spin and presented people with the evidence — all of which contradicts McCain’s remarks.

This is not just a problem of another Republican leader who has little use for evidence and reason. As Kevin Drum noted, McCain’s confusion, when shared with large audiences, can have public-health consequences.

The odds of thimerosal being responsible for autism are now slim and none, and perpetuating this myth does real damage — both to the cause of autism research and to the millions of parents who hear this and decide to keep their children from receiving the normal complement of childhood vaccines.

So what happened here? Why did McCain perpetuate this rubbish without even a smidgen of doubt in his voice? Was he pandering to some constituency or other? Was he just making shit up because he didn’t really know anything about the subject? Was he misinformed by own staff about this? Unfortunately, my guess is that the correct answer here is “making shit up,” a quality that McCain has shown an unfortunate weakness for in the past.
I know reporters love the guy, but the reality is that John McCain tends to say whatever thought pops into his head, without much regard for whether it’s true or makes sense. As Mark Kleiman added, “The best one can say for McCain’s behavior is that it marks him as a fool, willing to flap his jaw about important topics based on ignorance.”
ZOUNDS! I hope he isn't suggesting McCain and his gut aren't always right.

Dr. Novella is a bit kinder, trying to give him the benefit of the doubt, just spouting off without a clue. But as said above...THAT IS THE PROBLEM.

...

... This is yet another example of why, in today’s science and technology dominated world, we need leaders with a modicum of scientific literacy. I don’t expect every politician to be completely up to date on every complex scientific question, not even every one that has political implications. The big ones, sure. Politicians need to have an opinion about global warming, the utility of biofuels, the importance of science education, and why intelligent design is not science.

On a host of other issues they should at least have the sense to know that they should keep their mouth shut, at least until they have been briefed by a credible and competent science advisor. Otherwise they risk making the kind of gaff that McCain just made.

I suspect that McCain was not pandering, but just was blind sided by that question and thought he had sufficient information to give a definitive answer. I suspect he was not aware at the time that his comments do not reflect the current scientific consensus of opinion. In fact the evidence suggests that there is no autism epidemic, and overwhelming supports the conclusion that there is no link between thimerosal and autism. McCain seems unaware that thimerosal is no longer contained in the routine childhood vaccine schedule, and therefore he is probably not aware of the fact that its removal from vaccines has not altered the rate of increase of autism diagnoses.

But at this point I can only speculate about what he knows and believes. Therefore I have sent an inquiry to the McCain campaign asking for clarifying information. If I get any response I will publish it here.

Meanwhile, McCain’s comments are already brewing a small storm of controversy. David Kirby, who never misses a trick when it comes to distorting reality and making terrible arguments to support his position, is already exploiting McCain’s gaff. He writes:

Your courage — some would (and will) call it lunacy, or at best political suicide — to step into this quagmire, while running for President, no less, is an inspiration and comfort to those of us who continue to ask such discomfiting questions in the public realm.

What self-serving garbage. Kirby clearly envisions himself as a courageous soldier going against the tide of evil. But of course all cranks present themselves this way. This is identical to the ID proponents over at the Discovery Institute presenting themselves as oppressed and calling for academic freedom. Kirby is not asking “discomfiting” questions - he is making scientifically absurd statements defending a position that is demonstrably wrong with fallacious arguments. Now he is trying to picture himself as a defender arm-in-arm with a “War Hero. U.S. Senator. De Facto Presidential Nominee.” We will seee how long McCain sticks by his side when he learns what he really has stepped into.

Also, Kirby is just making a false argument from authority. As if being a war-hero gives McCain the background and knowledge to understand the relevant scientific evidence concerning autism and vaccines.

To be absolutely clear - this is not a political blog and I have nothing against John McCain politically. But when politicians step into the scientific arena, they better know what they are talking about. McCain clearly does not on this issue. We will see how quick a learner he is.
With his history of pandering, making nice with creationist and their ilk...He will go where the votes are, as he has no need to stand on issues like this.

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